How to Model Defaults – an Illustration Using Bank Failures
March 18, 2021
7 PM (MSK)
About the event:
One key factor influencing the bond market is credit risk – whether you will get paid in full and on time. When issuers default, investors can suffer significant losses. This webinar will describe how to model the likelihood of an issuers defaulting or not, using empirical analysis from Moody's.

The session will be led by Colin Ellis, Chief Credit Officer for EMEA and the Head of UK for Moody's, and will focus on the performance of banks after the onset of the Financial Crisis in 2007.
Colin will showcase how to establish which data matters for predicting defaults – and importantly how to interpret the results from these models. This analysis directly influenced how Moody's redesigned its methodology for rating banks after 2009, and can be applied to a range of other financial issues.
The webinar will allow time for more general queries about credit analysis, ratings or global trends.
    Colin Ellis
    Chief Credit Officer for EMEA and the Head of UK for Moody's
    Colin Ellis is Moody's Chief Credit Officer in EMEA, and a Managing Director in the Credit Strategy team. In his CCO role, Colin is responsible for identifying and analyzing the broad macro and credit trends, and leading and coordinating Moody's ratings approach, across franchises in the region. He is also a member of Moody's Macroeconomic Board, which sets the global forecasts that underpin Moody's universe of ratings.
    Colin joined Moody's in February 2012, initially leading the work of the Macroeconomic Board and authoring the quarterly Global Macro Outlook. Previously Colin has worked at the Bank of England, Daiwa Capital Markets and the BVCA. Colin is a Visiting Research Fellow in the economics department at Birmingham University, and has published on topics ranging from investment and pricing to private equity and data uncertainty. He is also a Fellow of the RSA. Colin holds degrees from York University, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Middlesex University. He is based in London.
    7 PM - 8 PM
    Access is free for members of CFA Association Russia. Email at for promocode. More about membership on this page.

    Should you have further questions, please contact us at or phone: +7 968 593 3084.